Black Sea ship strikes surge, testing NATO's eastern flank

Russia and Ukraine hit 317 merchant and other vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, more than four times the 74 struck in the previous six months, according to Ambrey Analytics figures reported by Reuters, and the tempo turned sharply Russian in October, when Russia hit 38 ships against five Ukrainian strikes. Nine of the October attacks were in Romanian or Bulgarian waters or exclusive economic zones, and a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria’s zone last week, days after NATO said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to bolster its Black Sea flank.

The campaign is cutting into food supply lines: Ukraine suspended operations at its Black Sea ports in late July and its port grain exports fell to 0.81 million tonnes in September from 2.1 million tonnes a year earlier, while Russian Black Sea grain exports fell to 0.3 million tonnes from 4.74 million. Turkey is waiting on Moscow and Kyiv to answer a narrow maritime ceasefire proposal, which Russia has rejected as a respite for Kyiv, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned of an agricultural crisis within a month or two if volumes fall further.