China’s soybean oil inventories have climbed to a record, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, as crushers kept processing at elevated rates after heavy September soybean imports while domestic edible oil demand remained sluggish following the autumn holiday buying season.
The stock level is consistent with the October data already visible in Chinese market reporting. SunSirs figures carried by UkrAgroConsult put commercial soybean oil inventories at 1.45 to 1.50 million tonnes through October, historically high for this time of year, with average prices moving only from 8,996 yuan a tonne at the start of October to 9,050 yuan by October 28 despite the overhang. Food processors and caterers have shifted to buying hand to mouth, and high Malaysian palm oil stocks add competing supply.
For the soybean complex the signal cuts against the futures tape. Soybeans in the site tables rose 1.20 percent to 1,219.2 cents a bushel, but a crusher sitting on record oil stocks has less reason to chase beans: the oil leg of the crush is glutted, so continued import demand depends on meal, not oil. Analysts cited by UkrAgroConsult expect Chinese soybean oil prices to stay rangebound near 8,800 to 9,000 yuan a tonne through November.