The International Energy Agency said Europe is entering the winter heating season with its lowest natural gas storage levels in more than a decade, with EU inventories at their lowest since 2013 at the start of the 2026-27 heating season, leaving the bloc reliant on global LNG for peak demand and exposed to a colder than expected winter or supply outages. In its Global Gas Security Review 2026, released on November 3, the agency said the effective halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz cut loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by more than 60 billion cubic metres between March and October, driving Asian and European prices to their highest since the 2022-23 gas crisis.
The review projects global LNG supply to fall by 3 percent, or almost 20 billion cubic metres, in 2026, and global gas demand to decline by around 1.5 percent, or close to 65 billion cubic metres, on demand destruction in the Middle East, lower European industrial use and gas to coal switching in Asia. Because storage options are also limited in LNG importing countries in Asia and South America, the agency said competition for flexible cargoes could lift spot prices in high demand periods, and the injections needed to rebuild European inventories through summer 2027 could prolong global tightness well into next year.