New Zealand goes into the final days of its election campaign with the two main parties level. The final 1News Verian poll, released on Tuesday, put the conservative National Party at 30 percent, up one point, and the centre left Labour Party at 29 percent, up two points, ahead of Saturday’s general election.
The support parties moved the other way. The Greens rose one point to 16 percent, while ACT and New Zealand First, National’s current coalition partners, each fell two points, to 10 percent and 8 percent. The centrist Opportunity Party was unchanged at 6 percent and Te Pati Maori rose slightly to 0.4 percent.
Under New Zealand’s mixed member proportional system, those numbers leave neither bloc with a majority. A right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First and a left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori would each need Opportunity’s support to form a government, making a small centrist party the kingmaker in post election bargaining.
Bloomberg separately rated the race too close to call with cost of living, housing and jobs as the deciding issues, a line covered in Monday’s edition as a market headwind story. The difference today is the hard arithmetic: Saturday’s count is now likely to be followed by coalition negotiations rather than a clear result on the night.