The Treasury announced on Monday that it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately held net marketable debt during the October to December 2026 quarter, assuming a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December. The estimate is $10 billion lower than the one published in August, primarily because the quarter began with more cash than assumed, partly offset by lower projected net cash flows.
Stripped of that head start, the underlying need moved the other way. Excluding the higher than assumed beginning of quarter balance, $984 billion against the $950 billion assumed in August, the current quarter estimate is $24 billion higher than August’s. For January to March 2027, the Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion, assuming the cash balance is rebuilt to $1.000 trillion by the end of March.
The completed quarter came in close to plan. The Treasury borrowed $742 billion in July to September against an August estimate of $739 billion, and ended September with $984 billion of cash against an assumed $950 billion. Excluding the higher end of quarter balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than announced in August, the department said.
The estimates are the first half of the refunding week. The second half, the quarterly refunding statement setting coupon auction sizes, is released at 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday. In August the Treasury said it continued to evaluate potential future changes to coupon and floating rate auction sizes, and Reuters reports analysts see the 20 year and 30 year auctions as the most likely to be reduced if sizes change, with increases concentrated in the 2 to 7 year sector. The department has already raised longer dated buybacks to a maximum of $6 billion per operation, from $2 billion.