Research published on Wednesday by Ursa Shipbrokers shows Chinese property starts down 74 percent since 2019, from 2.27 billion square metres to 588 million square metres last year, a level last seen in 2002. The decline is continuing this year: starts in the first nine months of 2026 totalled 340 million square metres, down 25 percent from a year earlier and almost 80 percent below the same period in 2019, while floor space under construction has fallen 32 percent since 2021 and completions are down about 40 percent from 2023 levels.
The weakness has not cut seaborne demand as the old relationship implied. Chinese iron ore imports rose 4.1 percent in the first nine months of 2026, and Ursa researcher Dionysios Tsilioris told Splash that the link between property starts and capesize earnings has largely disconnected, as longer voyages and new supply sources such as Guinea’s Simandou project support freight markets while construction demand shrinks.