Grains fell across the board in Tuesday’s Chicago session and overnight trade. December corn fell 6 cents to 4.4225 dollars a bushel, its lowest since July 2, and most active soybean futures fell 4 cents to 12.1275 dollars, their lowest since August 17. Chicago wheat fell 7.5 cents to 5.99 dollars a bushel, and Paris December milling wheat fell 1.3 percent to 225.25 euros a tonne, approaching the three and a half month low of 223 euros reached last Wednesday.
Two pressures are combining. The first is harvest supply: the US soybean harvest was 88 percent complete, four points ahead of average, and the corn harvest was 74 percent complete against a five year average of 77 percent, with larger than expected stocks, an October yield upgrade and speculative liquidation compounding the decline, Grain Central reported. US September soybean crush was 198.8 million bushels, down 5.2 percent from August, and corn used for ethanol reached 438.4 million bushels, down 8.5 percent month on month.
The second is geopolitics in reverse. Wheat weakened as planned Russia Ukraine negotiations, expected in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, removed further risk premium on the prospect of improved Black Sea flows. No agreement has been reached and no physical supply change has been reported, so the move is a premium removal, not a supply event.
Demand offered only partial support. The USDA confirmed a 136,000 tonne soybean sale to China, and US winter wheat planting reached 83 percent, one point behind average, with emergence at 65 percent. The site market tables show the complex steadier at Wednesday’s snapshot, with wheat at 600.8 cents, corn at 440.8 cents and soybeans at 1,203.5 cents, which leaves the November 10 WASDE and the Abu Dhabi talks as the next two catalysts.