JPMorgan sees United States copper output more than doubling

JPMorgan estimates the United States could add 1.3 million tonnes of annual copper capacity from new projects and expansions, more than doubling mined output, though most of it would arrive only after 2030.

Why it matters: Half the potential growth sits in one permitted contested project, Resolution Copper in Arizona, so the doubling case is really a permitting case, and mine growth alone does not close a roughly 1 million tonne processing deficit.

Data as of JPMorgan research reported November 3, 2026. Single-sourced to Mining.com's report of the bank note in this run; the bank's underlying note was not read directly, so this story is capped at grade C.

JPMorgan sees potential for the United States to more than double annual mined copper production through new projects and expansions, reversing decades of decline. The bank estimates the country could add 1.3 million tonnes of annual capacity, ranking it third globally for potential supply growth behind Chile and Argentina, but cautions that most of that production is unlikely to come online until after 2030. United States output has halved over the past 30 years to roughly 1 million tonnes a year, and the country’s share of global production has fallen from about 50 percent in 1900 to less than 5 percent today.

The proposed Resolution Copper mine in Arizona accounts for roughly half the additional capacity the bank identifies. The underground project, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP, could produce about 18 million tonnes of copper over a 40 year mine life and at full production meet as much as 25 percent of United States copper demand, according to the companies. Resolution still faces permitting requirements and technical studies, with production unlikely before 2030.

Costs are the second constraint. JPMorgan estimates United States copper projects require about $28,000 of capital investment for each tonne of annual production capacity, against a global average of $26,000. Freeport-McMoRan, the largest domestic producer, is the bank’s pick for nearer term growth, with more than 250,000 tonnes of potential annual production from brownfield expansions that can use existing infrastructure. The FAST-41 framework for streamlining federal reviews, in situ leaching and restarts of idled mines could add further tonnes.

Even if the mines are built, self sufficiency does not follow automatically. The United States runs a primary copper supply deficit of about 1 million tonnes and would need additional smelting and refining capacity to process more domestically mined concentrate. The pace of investment in processing, alongside mine development, decides how much of the potential increase becomes a domestic supply chain.

JPMorgan sees United States copper output more than doubling

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