KFF projects that the average monthly premium for standalone Medicare Part D prescription drug plans will reach 51 dollars in 2027, up 50 percent from 34 dollars in 2026, if current enrollees keep the same plan. The estimate is enrollment weighted on June 2026 enrollment and is built from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services plan landscape files for 2027.
The increase is not evenly shared. About 10.4 million people, or 76 percent of standalone plan enrollees who do not receive low income subsidies, would pay more if they stay put, and 2.4 million would see increases of more than 50 dollars a month. Premiums across the eight national standalone plans range from around 6 dollars to 204 dollars, and for the first time no standalone plan will be offered at zero premium to enrollees without subsidies.
KFF attributes the step change to the decision to discontinue the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026. That programme paid about 9.8 billion dollars in subsidies to plan sponsors over 2025 and 2026 and capped annual premium increases, at 50 dollars for 2026. Drug coverage inside Medicare Advantage plans moves the other way, averaging a projected 9 dollars a month in 2027, with an increase of less than 2 dollars.
The figure sits well above the federal projection. CMS estimated the national average premium would rise by about 1 dollar, from 35 dollars to 36 dollars, on September 2026 enrollment, without explaining its method. KFF notes that switching during open enrollment, which runs through December 7, will likely bring the realised 2027 average below 51 dollars, which makes this a shopping deadline story as much as a pricing story.