Poland holds reference rate at 3.75 percent in November

Poland's Monetary Policy Council kept all National Bank of Poland interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, leaving the reference rate at 3.75 percent, after October inflation fell back to 3.5 percent.

Why it matters: The hold matches the consensus going in, but the council's new projection lifts the 2027 inflation range to 3.1 to 5.3 percent, which keeps a first hike in early 2027 as the live question for the zloty and Polish rates.

Data as of Narodowy Bank Polski press release and meeting information of November 4, 2026, both read in full in this run; every rate, figure and projection range is the bank's own. The expectation going in is the Reuters analyst survey reported the same day (26 of 29 expecting no change). Developing item.

The Monetary Policy Council kept the National Bank of Poland’s interest rates unchanged at its November 3 to 4 meeting, with the reference rate at 3.75 percent, the lombard rate at 4.25 percent and the deposit rate at 3.25 percent. The council noted that October CPI inflation fell to 3.5 percent year on year from 4.1 percent in September on the Statistics Poland flash estimate, mainly on lower fuel prices, and that inflation excluding food and energy prices also fell.

The meeting carried the staff’s November projection, which puts inflation at 3.1 to 3.2 percent in 2026 but raises the 2027 range to 3.1 to 5.3 percent, against 1.5 to 4.0 percent in the July projection, with a return toward target in 2028 at 1.4 to 4.4 percent. The council said further decisions will depend on incoming information on the outlook for inflation and economic activity, and listed fiscal policy, regulated energy prices and wage growth among the risk factors.

Poland holds reference rate at 3.75 percent in November

Sources