The Treasury will auction $58 billion of 3-year notes on November 9, $42 billion of 10-year notes on November 10 and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on November 12, all settling November 16, and said current auction sizes leave it well positioned, so it anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and floating rate note sizes for the next several quarters, with seasonal needs met through bill sizes and cash management bills.
Two structural changes sit inside the steady headline. From March 2027 the 7-year note converts from a monthly new issue to a quarterly new issue with two reopenings, on the 10-year pattern, and the tentative buyback schedule for the coming quarter anticipates up to $70 billion of liquidity support purchases across off-the-run buckets plus up to $25 billion of cash management purchases in the 1-month to 2-year bucket. The department assumes an $850 billion cash balance at the end of December and puts the next refunding announcement on February 3, 2027.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, whose report and meeting minutes the department published alongside the statement, unanimously recommended keeping nominal coupon, floating rate and TIPS sizes unchanged this quarter, and the committee told the Secretary that increases in coupon auction sizes will be warranted later in fiscal 2027, with considerable debate about the pace and sizing at the long end. The minutes put a number on the pressure: at current coupon sizes and projected bill supply, the median primary dealer borrowing forecast implies a $2.14 trillion funding shortfall over fiscal 2028 and 2029, and dealers generally expect increases to begin by the end of fiscal 2027, concentrated in the 2-year to 10-year sector. On the committee’s first charge, members found no evidence that the wave of super intelligence related corporate issuance in 2026 has crowded out demand for long dated Treasuries, and they judged the liquidity support buyback program an effective tool, while saying any management of the maturity profile should be done through auction sizes.