New Zealand votes on Saturday, November 7, with the two main parties below 30 percent each and neither bloc able to form a government on current polling without a party that has never held the balance of power. The final 1News Verian poll, released on Tuesday, put Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party on 30 percent and Chris Hipkins’s Labour Party on 29 percent. A Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll had National on 28.9 percent and Labour on 28.4 percent. Both polls show the Greens between 14 and 16 percent, ACT near 10 percent, New Zealand First between 8 and 9 percent, and the centrist Opportunity party at about 6 percent, above the 5 percent threshold a party needs to enter parliament on the party vote.
Under New Zealand’s mixed member proportional system, a party needs 5 percent of the party vote or one electorate win to take seats, and 61 of the usual 120 seats to govern. On these numbers, a right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First falls short, and so does a left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori. Opportunity, led by businesswoman Qiulae Wong, has said it will negotiate first with whichever party wins the most votes, which makes its threshold result the single most consequential number of the night. Possible overhang seats, where a party wins more electorates than its party vote share, could also expand parliament beyond 120 seats and raise the majority line.
The campaign has been fought on the cost of living, health care and public services, and it closes against weak economic data: Statistics New Zealand reported this week that unemployment reached 5.7 percent in the September quarter, an 11 year high, a figure carried in yesterday’s edition. National is pledging a return to budget surplus and an expanded national pension scheme; Labour is campaigning on cheaper health care and transport and investment in jobs, housing and infrastructure. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has said he wants the country to leave the Paris climate agreement and the central bank to target employment as well as inflation.
If no bloc can form a government from the preliminary count, parties must wait for the final count, due on November 27, before negotiations can settle. That timetable means fiscal direction, coalition policy trades and any change of government may not be confirmed until late November, three weeks after the vote. Status: reported, based on final published polls; polls are not results.