Central Asia Metals’ newly acquired Chibougamau project in Quebec could produce more copper each year than the company’s Kounrad mine in Kazakhstan, helping offset shrinking output there in the early 2030s, according to BMO Capital Markets. Analyst Alexander Pearce resumed coverage at outperform while cutting his share price target by 25 percent to 180 pence (C$3.38) from 240 pence. Annual steady state production at Chibougamau could reach about 20,000 tonnes of copper and 32,000 ounces of gold, with first output in late 2031 or early 2032 on BMO’s modelling.
The replacement need is dated. Kounrad recovers copper from historical waste dumps, and an August reserve update forecast its output dropping to 9,000 tonnes in 2031 and 6,000 tonnes in 2032, with production continuing through 2034. Central Asia’s 2026 target for Kounrad remains 12,000 to 13,000 tonnes. The company also operates the Sasa zinc and lead mine in North Macedonia.
BMO’s case requires substantial new spending. The bank assumes $450 million (C$630 million) in pre production capital, including full replacement of the historic Copper Rand processing plant rather than the refurbishment Central Asia has described, three years of construction, and annual mill throughput of 900,000 tonnes. Permitting is likely to determine when construction can begin. An updated preliminary economic assessment is expected in the second half of 2027. Chibougamau came with the acquisition of Cygnus Metals, completed on October 27, under which Cygnus shareholders received 0.06 Central Asia shares for each share held. Central Asia shares rose 2.1 percent to C$2.41 on Thursday morning in Toronto, valuing the company at about C$618 million.
The project covers more than 282 square kilometres about 480 kilometres north of Montreal. Five deposits, Corner Bay, Devlin, Cedar Bay, Joe Mann and Golden Eye, lie within about 50 kilometres of the plant and could supply a central mill in a hub and spoke plan. The site has tailings storage, a hydroelectric power connection and road and rail infrastructure, and the Copper Rand plant, idle since 2008, has historical capacity of 900,000 tonnes a year.
The resource base is real but early. A September 2025 estimate put measured and indicated resources at 6.4 million tonnes grading 2.3 percent copper, 0.8 grams per tonne gold and 7.6 grams per tonne silver, containing 149,000 tonnes of copper, 167,000 ounces of gold and about 1.6 million ounces of silver. Inferred resources total 8.5 million tonnes grading 2.1 percent copper, 1.7 grams per tonne gold and 7.9 grams per tonne silver. No mineral reserves have been established, so BMO’s production and capital figures remain a conceptual case that the 2027 assessment will either support or revise.