Global renewable power capacity will increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, almost 60 percent more than was added in the previous six year period, the International Energy Agency said on November 6 in its annual Renewables report. Solar photovoltaic generation will account for more than three quarters of the growth, followed by onshore wind.
The driver has changed. Executive Director Fatih Birol said environmental concerns were previously the policy priority behind renewables growth, but today energy security is mainly driving expansion, as countries seek to reduce exposure to imported fuels after the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February and the disruption of traffic through Hormuz. Renewables supply a third of global electricity generation today and will move closer to half within five years on the IEA forecast.
The geography is broadening. For the first time, capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match that added in advanced economies. China remains the largest contributor, but its share falls from over 60 percent in 2025 to an average of 53 percent over the forecast period. India becomes the second largest growth market, with total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031, and additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa almost triple compared with the previous period. India is also expected to nearly double its share of global solar module manufacturing to 17 percent, diversifying a concentrated supply chain.
Households are part of the buildout. Rooftop solar installed by consumers facing high fuel prices and unreliable supply has already improved electricity services for around 70 million households, the report finds. Renewable use in transport rises by more than 60 percent by 2031 to 6 percent of transport energy demand, with the biofuels forecast revised up 40 percent from last year after countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America raised blending mandates in response to high fuel prices.
The constraint is the grid. Advanced stage renewable and storage projects waiting for grid connection rose 60 percent in a year to 3,000 gigawatts, four times the wind and solar capacity connected last year. The IEA said investment in grids, faster connections, battery storage and demand flexibility will decide whether the capacity surge becomes secure and affordable supply.