More than half of the LNG to power projects proposed in four Southeast and South Asian markets have been cancelled or stalled since 2021, with an estimated value of 67.8 billion dollars, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in a report published on November 5. The analysis covered 109.2 billion dollars of proposed LNG fired power projects and another 21 billion dollars of planned import terminals in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh.
In total, 49 proposed LNG fired power plants and 22 regasification terminals were cancelled or showed no notable progress between 2021 and 2026. The stalled or cancelled value is nearly 4.5 times the value of projects completed in the same period, IEEFA said, meaning the region’s LNG expansion has progressed far more slowly than the global gas industry expected when the project lists were drawn up.
The institute pointed to compounding execution risks: spikes and volatility in LNG prices, depreciation of Asian currencies against the dollar, long lead times for gas turbines in a tight equipment market, and higher capital costs. Taken together, those risks could raise the levelised cost of electricity from LNG fired plants by up to 130 percent relative to baseline assumptions made in 2021, weakening the revenue certainty lenders require.
The counterweight is data centre demand. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie argued in September that combined cycle gas turbines remain the most reliable round the clock power source for hyperscalers in a region where renewables plus batteries are still immature, giving Southeast Asian LNG demand a material upside the project graveyard does not capture. Both readings can be true: the 2021 vintage pipeline largely failed on cost, while a smaller, data centre anchored pipeline may still be built.