A.P. Moller Maersk shares fell as much as 11.6 percent in Copenhagen on November 5, the most since April 2025, after a guidance upgrade and third quarter results from the world’s second largest shipping line both came in below analyst estimates. The stock fell for a sixth straight day, though it remains up about 36 percent this year.
Maersk now expects 2026 underlying earnings before interest and tax of 8 billion to 8.5 billion dollars, below the average analyst estimate of 8.66 billion dollars compiled by Bloomberg, but well above its previous forecast range of 4.5 billion to 6.5 billion dollars. It is the second upgrade in three months. Third quarter earnings before interest and tax rose 155 percent from a year earlier to 3.27 billion dollars, missing the 3.61 billion dollar estimate, with revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation also below estimates.
Analysts attributed the miss to the Ocean business, where volume growth was slightly weaker than expected and costs higher, with lower Middle East activity and difficult weather among the causes. Chief Executive Vincent Clerc told reporters that some analysts need to look into the spreadsheets. The guidance implies fourth quarter earnings slightly below the third quarter.
The earnings quality is the commodity angle. Maersk’s results continue to be driven by capacity disruptions around Hormuz, typhoons and port congestion, following the pandemic and Red Sea diversions in a long run of supply chain shocks that have supported freight rates. For commodity shippers the read is two sided: rates stay supported while disruption lasts, and the line most exposed to that disruption is telling investors the fourth quarter will be softer than the third.