Revolution Medicines reported third quarter revenue of 198 million dollars for Rasonque, its treatment for pancreatic cancer, covering just five weeks after the Food and Drug Administration approved the drug on August 26. Analysts had been looking for sales of 50 million to 100 million dollars. TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren called the start the best oncology drug launch in history in a note to clients, according to BioPharma Dive.
More than 5,000 patients in the United States received Rasonque in the period through September 30, Revolution said. About 40 percent of the 2,700 prescribers were in academic settings, with the rest in community practices. The company set a list price of 39,800 dollars for a 30 day supply, above analyst expectations, and said health plans covering more than 90 percent of patients are reimbursing claims.
Analysts moved their forecasts up sharply. RBC Capital Markets analyst Leonid Timashev forecast 426 million dollars of Rasonque sales in the fourth quarter alone and more than 3 billion dollars next year, and estimated that some 10,000 patients could take the drug by the end of the fourth quarter. Van Buren raised his fourth quarter revenue forecast to 460 million dollars.
Both the company and analysts flagged a reason for caution. Third quarter revenue included patients transitioning from an early access programme, which is now complete, giving sales an initial bolus that will not repeat. Some of those patients were sicker and may discontinue treatment earlier. Anthony Mancini, Revolution’s chief global commercialisation officer, told analysts that with only five weeks of commercialisation it is too early to draw conclusions about the normal trajectory of the launch.
The commercial question now is durability rather than uptake. Rasonque targets RAS mutations and is being studied in other settings, which analysts cited as a source of further upside. The fourth quarter print will be the first clean read on underlying demand without the early access bolus.