Sibanye-Stillwater has cut its 2026 production forecast for its United States platinum group metals operations by as much as 15 percent after a five week strike disrupted mining at Stillwater and processing at its Columbus metallurgical complex in Montana. The company now expects the palladium dominated operations to produce between 245,000 and 255,000 ounces of platinum and palladium this year, down from previous guidance of 280,000 to 300,000 ounces, according to its third quarter operating update released on Thursday.
United States production fell 19 percent year on year to 59,417 ounces in the September quarter. The strike began on September 3 and ended after workers ratified a new multiyear collective bargaining agreement in early October, with employees returning to work on October 9. Business Day reported the agreement provides a 4.5 percent wage increase in the first year, with further increases in the second and third years. The disruption pushed third quarter production costs 39 percent higher to $1,617 an ounce, and the company raised its full year cost forecast to $1,700 to $1,760 an ounce, from $1,520 to $1,580 an ounce. Labour attrition during the negotiations left staffing about 25 percent below the levels planned for next year’s mechanised operations, and the company says its fourth quarter focus is rebuilding work teams and restoring output.
The rest of the group held up better, which is why the United States is the only division expected to miss its 2026 operating targets. Southern African PGM output fell 10 percent year on year to 458,202 ounces, reflecting planned reductions in surface production and depleting reserves at Kroondal, but full year guidance of 1.65 million to 1.75 million ounces was maintained. Gold production dropped 12 percent to 155,449 ounces as underground output from the mature deep level mines fell 22 percent. Higher commodity prices offset the volume losses, lifting group adjusted EBITDA by 9 percent year on year to 10.8 billion rand ($661.4 million).
Sibanye’s longer term United States plan is to lower production costs to about $1,000 an ounce by the end of 2028 while raising annual production to about 410,000 ounces, a target that now depends on rebuilding the workforce the strike depleted. The mechanised operating model the labour agreement supports is central to that plan.
The update also slowed the group’s lithium ambitions. Sibanye is staging commissioning at its Keliber project in Finland, prioritising stable mining and concentrator performance before starting the refinery, after revised forecasts pointed to lithium supply exceeding demand growth and a larger than expected market surplus in 2026. Keliber, described by the company as the European Union’s most advanced integrated lithium project, is designed to produce about 15,000 tonnes of battery grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate a year for more than 18 years. The decision on refinery commissioning timing is due in the fourth quarter and will determine whether refined production starts in 2027 or waits for better prices.