South African electricity generation decreased 5.2 percent year on year in September 2026, Statistics South Africa said in its P4141 release, even as electricity distribution, the consumption measure, increased 1.5 percent year on year. Seasonally adjusted generation rose 0.4 percent month on month after declines in the two previous months, and seasonally adjusted production was down 0.4 percent in the third quarter compared with the second.
For the year to September, generation was down 6.9 percent at 163,747 gigawatt hours, compared with 175,941 gigawatt hours in the same period a year earlier. Monthly consumption dipped 0.9 percent in September despite the annual rise, and electricity delivered to the nine provinces edged up 1.6 percent to 16,200 gigawatt hours.
The balancing item was trade. Electricity inflows into South Africa jumped 78.4 percent year on year to 594 gigawatt hours in September, while outflows fell 58.8 percent to 530 gigawatt hours. A system generating less and consuming more, covered by imports, is a different risk profile from the load shedding era: the constraint shows up in the import bill and in regional power availability rather than in domestic blackouts.
Eskom produces about 86 percent of the country’s electricity, with independent power producers contributing roughly 10 to 15 percent since the renewable procurement programme began in 2011. The September data keep the question for South African mining and smelting load the same one the IEA’s renewables outlook raises globally: whether new capacity arrives faster than the legacy fleet declines.