The World Bank expects Brent crude to average almost 100 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 91 dollars for 2026 as a whole, before receding to an average of 79 dollars in 2027 and 70 dollars in 2028 as the market moves into surplus. The forecast, in the bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook, rests on Gulf shipments staying elevated and global production recovering next year while consumption stays weak.
The demand side is unusually soft. The bank projects global oil consumption contracting by 2.6 million barrels a day, or 2.5 percent, in 2026, the third largest decline on record after 2020 and 1980. Energy prices overall are projected to rise 32 percent in 2026, reversing three years of declines, then fall 12 percent in 2027. Overall commodity prices rise 23 percent in 2026 and ease 7 percent in 2027 in the baseline.
Compared with its April forecasts, the bank raised its energy price projections by 7 percent for 2026 and 14 percent for 2027, judging that supply disruptions will persist longer than previously expected even as their intensity moderates. The market is expected to remain in deficit through the fourth quarter of 2026, supporting prices before recovering supply eases the balance.
The bank also priced the other path. In an adverse scenario in which a wider Middle East conflict, further damage to Russian oil infrastructure, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a strong El Nino coincide, Brent would average 105 dollars in 2027 and food prices would run 12 percent above baseline, exceeding their 2022 levels. This week’s price action, with Brent on track for its steepest weekly fall since 2020, is the market moving toward the baseline; the tanker attacks in the Gulf are the reminder that the adverse case is not hypothetical.