The Institute for Fiscal Studies says Ghana captured only $1.60 billion in government revenue from a mining sector that generated $13.40 billion in value added in 2025, roughly 12 percent. Executive director Dr Said Boakye, presenting the institute’s October 2026 policy brief in Accra on November 5, contrasted that with Botswana, which between 2019 and 2023 converted an average of 60.9 percent of mining value added into government revenue. Had Ghana matched that rate in 2025, the IFS calculates, it would have collected $8.16 billion, an additional $6.56 billion.
The longer run comparison is less dramatic but points the same way. Between 2019 and 2023, Ghana’s government revenue from mining averaged 15 percent of the sector’s value added, $729.61 million on average value added of $5.03 billion, while Botswana averaged $1.72 billion on a smaller mining sector of $2.81 billion. The IFS attributes Botswana’s performance in large part to direct state participation in mining through partnerships with private companies, which brings dividend and royalty income and, in Boakye’s words, insider knowledge of operations and profitability. Ghana, by contrast, relies mainly on private companies operating under concessions.
The mining finding sits inside a broader revenue argument. Ghana’s total revenue and grants were 15.7 percent of GDP in 2025, ranking 18th among 25 Sub-Saharan African countries assessed and below the regional average of 20.1 percent. The IFS also cited tax evasion, underreporting, excessive exemptions and port leakages, including a Ghana Revenue Authority estimate that more than GH¢11 billion was lost at the ports through incorrect declarations.
Jurisdiction watch: read alongside this week’s earlier developments, the IFS brief strengthens the government’s hand in the debate over Ghana’s new fiscal terms for mining. The sliding scale royalty of 5 to 12 percent has already lifted royalty receipts to GH¢7.82 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and the proposed Mining Act would cap licences and phase out fiscal stability agreements. The IFS argument goes further than either measure: it frames the revenue gap as a question of ownership structure, which is a harder claim for producers including Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields to answer with predictability arguments alone. The counterfactual itself should be treated with care, since Botswana’s rate reflects a diamond sector and a specific state equity model that does not transfer mechanically to gold.