Global liquefied natural gas importers will spend at least 39 billion dollars more in 2026 than forecast before the Middle East conflict, taking the total bill to 256.3 billion dollars, up 18 percent, according to analysis by Rystad Energy. The extra cost lands even though import volumes fall by 60.7 million tonnes, because disrupted Qatari and Emirati supply through the Strait of Hormuz forces buyers to replace cargoes at spot prices.
Europe is hit hardest. Its LNG import costs rise by at least 12 billion dollars despite demand falling by 24 million tonnes, and European importers stand to lose 20.6 million tonnes of contracted Qatari deliveries out of 24.7 million tonnes expected this year. Rystad attributes the exposure to contract structure: Europe buys about 65 percent of its LNG on the spot market, where prices are the most volatile.
East Asia fares better on the same analysis. Its import costs rise by 9.7 percent, because supply is more diverse and about 82 percent of its long term contracts are indexed to oil prices, which have risen less sharply than spot LNG prices. The contrast is the analytical point of the study: the same physical disruption produces very different bills depending on how a region buys its gas.
Rystad analyst Christoph Halser said energy security depends not only on prices but on the ability to secure supplies, and that importers need to diversify supply sources, routes and contract structures. US LNG could help Europe reduce its dependence on Hormuz transit, the analysis notes, although rising US domestic gas demand alongside exports could push US prices higher.