Iranian oil exports have dwindled to almost nothing under the US naval blockade, Bloomberg reported, citing vessel tracking estimates that Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September or October. September was the first month without loadings since the war began in February. Only about 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil are still reaching the market via Iraq, FGE Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
The blockade has also left at least 54 tankers carrying Iranian oil and other petroleum products idling along the country’s coast, according to the American nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran, although about 11 smaller ships carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas have passed the blockade, the group said in an update this week. China was the main destination for sanctioned Iranian crude before the conflict, with the discounted barrels particularly popular among independent refiners.
Fesharaki argued the export halt is not bringing a settlement closer. He said the Republican Party’s showing in the midterm elections means Tehran perceives President Donald Trump as politically weakened, that Iran is making demands the White House cannot accept, and that the two sides are further from a resolution than before the June memorandum that temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. He put the likelihood of renewed strikes on Iran as high and said that by the end of November Iran would be starving because no money is coming in.
The market is not currently pricing that escalation risk. Brent crude closed Friday at 98.32 dollars a barrel in the site tables, down 16.42 percent on the week, after Trump repeatedly threatened fresh attacks in the run up to the midterms, which helped push oil to a six month high in October, and then held back after the vote.