China’s trade engine ran hot again in October, but this time imports did the surprising. Exports rose 35.2 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms, ahead of the 33.5 percent rise expected in a Reuters poll though a touch slower than September’s 36.3 percent. Imports climbed 41.6 percent, up from 31.0 percent in September and far above the 32 percent analysts had forecast. The trade surplus narrowed to 105.3 billion dollars, the lowest since April according to LSEG data, taking the surplus for the year to date to 1.04 trillion dollars, against a record 1.2 trillion dollars for all of 2025.
The composition matters as much as the headline. Much of the export surge reflects robust global demand for chips and other AI related hardware, which leaves the boom exposed to any slowdown in the AI buildout, and CNBC noted that the same demand is pulling imports in. The import beat also sits oddly against softness elsewhere: household consumption remained weak, with retail sales growing a modest 1.1 percent in September, factory activity unexpectedly shrank in October on cooler overseas orders, and a China Beige Book survey showed new domestic and export orders slowing from a year earlier.
The narrower surplus lands in the middle of a live trade argument. Trading partners have been pressing Beijing to boost domestic demand and rebalance, and the European Union last month agreed limits on Chinese hybrid vehicle imports taking effect December 1, capping them at 350,000 cars a year, a level analysts cited by CNBC said would barely contain the export boom. Washington and Beijing in September extended their broader trade truce by two months to January, and Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week.