President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he is highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict keep progressing. “It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” he told CNN in a phone interview. “The answer is, highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary.” He repeated the assessment several times, while keeping the threat explicit: the United States has identified infrastructure targets inside Iran, including 38 bridges he said could be knocked down “in literally one hour,” and three US aircraft carriers are in the region.
The diplomatic track behind the remark is Qatari mediation. Iran has submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday, saying the US was reviewing it but that discussion would depend on Washington first meeting Tehran’s seven demands, which include sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and war reparations. Washington says nuclear issues must feature in the initial talks. Trump spoke by phone with Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, on Friday about de-escalation and a comprehensive agreement, the emir’s office said, and Qatar’s prime minister is due at the White House on Monday.
His own administration is not speaking with one voice. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, asked about diplomacy on Sunday, said he did not believe a breakthrough was imminent, calling the talks unproductive so far because Iranian demands are “not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous.” Later on Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that “Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect” on Iran, the campaign, first reported by Reuters on Saturday, to crack down on Tehran’s movement of advanced weapons and sanctioned material over its land borders and through the Caspian Sea.
The war itself has not paused. Both countries reported shipping hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend: the US military said its air force disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman that tried to run the blockade, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines on an unauthorized route through the strait and a third tanker exploded, reports Reuters could not confirm. The June memorandum of understanding signed in Islamabad expired in August after talks broke down, and no ceasefire is in force.
The politics are part of the timing. Trump acknowledged after last week’s midterm elections that the Iran war was part of the reason for the Republican defeat, while Vice President JD Vance said flatly in a social media post, “The reason we lost is the war,” a comment Trump told reporters “a lot of people did not like.” Trump had previously hinted he would renew major attacks once the elections were over; there has been no sign of a large scale operation since.