Monday, November 9
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. Markets reopen carrying Friday’s close, with Brent crude at 98.32 dollars after a 16.42 percent weekly fall, the US 10 year Treasury yield at 4.86 percent and the Nikkei 225 down 5.96 percent in its last session, and nothing on Monday’s calendar to settle any of it. The day’s wider items, Philippine third quarter GDP and the first refunding auction, sit in the closing section below.
Tuesday, November 10
US CPI, October (rates). The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the week’s largest release and the last CPI the Federal Reserve sees before its December 8 to 9 meeting. Going in: consensus is headline inflation up 0.3 percent on the month, down from 0.6 percent in September, and core up 0.2 percent, down from 0.3 percent. The Cleveland Fed nowcast is lower, at 0.24 percent headline and 0.21 percent core, and RBC is at 0.3 percent for both. Futures price a December hike at about 77 to 78 percent after Friday’s payrolls beat. No annual rate will be published for the main indexes, because October 2025 prices were not collected during the government shutdown, so the monthly figures carry the whole signal. The calendar also notes euro area inflation printed 4.0 percent for October, which sets the comparison. A surprise counts as core at 0.4 percent or above, which would push December hike pricing toward certainty and lift the front end, or headline and core both at 0.1 percent or below, which would reopen the hold case. Most exposed: US Treasuries across the curve, the dollar and December FOMC pricing.
Bank of Canada summary of deliberations, October 28 meeting (rates). The Bank of Canada publishes its summary of the Governing Council’s October meeting, its minutes equivalent, with the policy rate at 2.50 percent. Going in: the summary is the first detailed account of how the Council weighed a cooling labour market, with October employment flat and unemployment at 6.7 percent, against inflation, and it shapes CORRA pricing for the December decision. A surprise counts as a recorded split on the timing of the next move, or discussion of the neutral rate and balance sheet normalisation that points to a December change, either of which would move the Canadian dollar and front end government yields. Most exposed: the Canadian dollar, front end GoC yields and December CORRA pricing.
USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports, November (commodities). The Department of Agriculture publishes the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports at noon Eastern, the last full US harvest update of the season, resetting ending stocks expectations into year end. Going in: this site’s commodities reporting has grains ending October soft, with wheat exports cut to the second lowest since 1971-72, and Friday’s closes were wheat at 591.2 cents, corn at 441.5 cents and soybeans at 1,193.8 cents. The report follows two weeks of flash sales to China. A surprise counts as a cut to US corn or soybean ending stocks against the October report, which would firm the complex, or a further cut to wheat exports, which would press wheat and feed grains together. Most exposed: corn, wheat and soybeans, with fertilizer and livestock feed costs second in line. Watch South American planting weather assumptions as well as the stocks lines.
China rare earth export control truce expires (mining). Beijing’s one year suspension of its October 2025 rare earth export controls expires. Unless it is extended, the extraterritorial licensing regime returns: any product made outside China with Chinese origin rare earths or Chinese rare earth technology would require a MOFCOM export licence. The April 2025 controls on dysprosium and terbium were never suspended. Going in: August Chinese export volumes ran 18.2 percent below a year ago despite the truce, with value per ton up 72.7 percent, a rationed market even in the truce year, and this site’s mining reporting today has the Western buildout still at the processing first stage, with a Louisiana separation cluster taking imported feedstock from Chile and Brazil. The US DFARS ban on Chinese origin magnets in defence procurement lands on January 1, 2027, 52 days later. A surprise counts as an extension on new terms, which would hold the licensing regime off but reset the bargaining, or silence through Tuesday, which lets the regime return by default and forces factory level adjustments in auto and EV supply chains. Most exposed: rare earth miners including Lynas, MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, battery and energy transition materials, and automakers.
Russia, Ukraine and US trilateral talks open, Abu Dhabi (politics). The three delegations meet in Abu Dhabi for two days of scheduled talks, November 10 to 11, reported in this site’s November 8 morning briefs. Going in: Ukraine’s grid goes into the talks carrying substation damage that this site’s politics reporting expects to outlast them, so the energy position is being set by strikes as well as by diplomacy. Any ceasefire or framework outcome moves energy, grains and European rates. A surprise counts as a named ceasefire framework with a follow up date, which would press crude, gas and wheat and lift European assets, or an early break up with no follow up scheduled, which would do the opposite. Most exposed: crude, gas and wheat through the energy and export channels, and European rates. The full entry is in Wednesday’s section, when the talks close.
Wednesday, November 11
Russia, Ukraine and US trilateral talks close, Abu Dhabi (politics). The second and final scheduled day of the Abu Dhabi talks. Going in: the test set on Tuesday is unchanged, whether a ceasefire framework or only a working level exchange results, and whether any follow up date is named. Ukraine’s winter energy position, with grid damage already done, is the fact the talks cannot undo this week. A surprise counts as a framework announcement on the closing day, or a joint statement that schedules a further round before year end. Most exposed: crude, gas, wheat and European rates. US bond markets are closed for Veterans Day while equities stay open, which thins the rates reaction to any outcome.
Thursday, November 12
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. The week’s last refunding auction, 25 billion dollars of thirty year bonds, sits in the closing section below, and Thursday trades on Tuesday’s answers: December Fed pricing after CPI, the rare earth position after the truce deadline, and the Abu Dhabi outcome.
Friday, November 13
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. Friday’s CFTC positioning release is the first to capture the November 4 crude collapse in full, after money managers cut 78,492 lots of combined Brent and WTI net length in the week ended November 3, before the fall.
Saturday, November 14
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar.
Sunday, November 15
No scheduled catalysts on the calendar. The week closes with the next dated tests outside it: Nvidia’s third quarter results on November 17 and the FOMC minutes of October 27 to 28 on November 18.
Also on the tape
The calendar carries five catalysts, all on Tuesday, but the week’s trading calendar is wider. The US Treasury sells 125 billion dollars of refunding debt: 58 billion dollars of three year notes on Monday, 42 billion dollars of ten year notes on Tuesday, the same session as CPI, and 25 billion dollars of thirty year bonds on Thursday, all settling November 16. Tuesday also brings the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions from its October 29 to 30 meeting, Japan’s thirty year auction and Copom and Riksbank minutes on the wider calendar, and CoreWeave reports after the close. Cisco and Applied Materials report on Thursday. Monday brings Philippine third quarter GDP, with a median poll of 2.7 percent, and 55 billion pesos of bill auctions, and COP31 opens in Antalya, running to November 20 with a leaders summit on November 11 to 12. The FOMC has no meeting this week; it last met on October 27 and 28 and next meets on December 8 to 9, with the minutes of the October meeting due on November 18.