Shipping activity in the Black Sea fell 37 percent compared with a year earlier in October 2026, as attacks on merchant ships and port infrastructure pushed owners to reconsider their exposure to the region. Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence show 1,370 cargo carrying vessels of more than 1,000 deadweight tons were active in the Black Sea during October, continuing an uninterrupted monthly decline since March, when 2,091 vessels traded across ports in the six Black Sea coastal states.
The decline accelerated sharply from August, when monthly activity fell by more than 10 percent as Ukraine intensified attacks against Russian port infrastructure and Russia linked shipping, and Russian attacks subsequently expanded into Turkish, Bulgarian and Romanian exclusive economic zones. Containership and bulker activity has almost halved since June, and younger, more valuable ships are retreating fastest as owners reassess the risk.
Marine Insight, citing the Ukrainian outlet Intent, reported the same figures and noted that war risk insurance for high risk voyages in the region now costs more. It reported more than 570 ships attacked in the Black Sea since the beginning of 2026 and at least 40 sailors killed, figures attributed to the latest reports rather than to Lloyd’s List Intelligence and not independently verified here.
The commercial consequence is a two speed world shipping map. While LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached its highest level since February in October and tanker freight rates have fallen by more than a third in a week, the Black Sea corridor that carries Ukrainian and Russian grain, fuel and metals is losing a third of its vessel activity, with the threat now reaching waters off NATO members Romania and Bulgaria.