The US Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for 2026/27 US corn ending stocks to 1.758 billion bushels in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, down from 1.849 billion in October and well below the 1.826 billion average estimate in the Dow Jones pre-report survey. The cut came from the crop itself: USDA lowered the corn yield to 179.6 bushels per acre from 181.2 in October, trimming production to 15.893 billion bushels from 16.034 billion, and also reduced feed and residual use to 5.975 billion bushels and exports to 3.275 billion. The season average farm price forecast fell 10 cents to 4.60 dollars per bushel even as the balance tightened, reflecting the size of the harvest already in hand.
Soybeans tightened against expectations in the other direction. USDA put ending stocks at 300 million bushels, down from 315 million in October, where the Dow Jones survey had expected a rise to 336 million and the Reuters poll a rise to 331 million. Production edged up to 4.574 billion bushels on a 53.3 bushel per acre yield, but exports were raised 25 million bushels to 1.720 billion, more than absorbing the larger crop, and the season average price forecast rose 10 cents to 12.10 dollars per bushel.
Wheat landed in line. Ending stocks were put at 743 million bushels, against 740 million in October and survey expectations near 746 to 747 million, with production unchanged at 1.534 billion bushels and the season average price forecast cut 10 cents to 6.20 dollars per bushel.
The world balance moved less than the US one. World ending stocks for 2026/27 were raised for total grains to 796.86 million metric tons from 787.84 million in October, and for wheat to 280.82 million tons from 276.04 million, as foreign production increases offset part of the US corn reduction. World oilseed ending stocks eased to 145.65 million tons from 146.31 million.
The surprise lands on a market positioned for the opposite. December corn futures settled down 0.5 percent on Monday at 4.39 and a quarter dollars per bushel, a four month low, January soybeans settled down 0.5 percent at 11.88 and a quarter dollars, and December wheat fell 0.5 percent to 5.88 dollars, Dow Jones reported, with money managers having liquidated their net long corn position and moved short into the report. A corn carryout 68 million bushels below the survey average, and a soybean carryout below even the middle of the wide pre-report range, is the combination that positioning was not carrying.