Gold and silver fell sharply in early US trading on Tuesday after US inflation came in hotter than expected. Spot gold traded near 4055.30 dollars an ounce, down 84.10 dollars or 2.03 percent, and spot silver near 51.70 dollars, down 1.60 dollars or 3.01 percent, Kitco reported. On one intraday measure the metal fell from 4148.58 dollars to 4013.63 dollars, retracing about half of its early November rally, before holding above 4000 dollars into the Asian session.
The trigger was the Bureau of Labor Statistics October report: the consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on the month, after 0.6 percent in September and against expectations of 0.3 percent, while core prices rose 0.3 percent for a third straight month, with shelter up 0.3 percent and food and energy also higher. The BLS published no 12 month change for October because the October 2025 index was not collected during the funding lapse.
Before the release, futures markets put about an 84 percent probability on a 25 basis point Federal Reserve increase at the December 8 to 9 meeting; after the print and hawkish comments from Governor Christopher Waller, who had said a 50 basis point move should be considered if core inflation ran at 0.3 percent or higher, a quarter point increase was close to fully priced with some probability on a larger move. The 10 year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.94 percent on Tuesday and stands at 4.98 percent in the site tables.
The metal steadied rather than breaking down. Site tables updated Wednesday at 06:00 EST carry gold futures at 4058.8 dollars, up 0.71 percent on the day, and silver futures at 52.93 dollars, up 3.58 percent, the largest gain in the commodities table. Standard Chartered remains overweight gold and notes it continues to trade above the critical 4000 dollar mark, while Goldman Sachs cut its end 2026 forecast to 4150 dollars from 4650 dollars on November 5, citing a more hawkish Fed. Friday’s October producer price index is the next test.