Global demand for sustainable fuels, including biofuels, biogases, low-emissions hydrogen and derived fuels, is projected to grow by around a third between 2024 and 2030, but under current policies demand for sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels in 2030 would sit around 30 percent below the level needed to stay on track for the Belém Pledge’s goal of quadrupling their use by 2035, the International Energy Agency said in a report launched at COP31 in Antalya. By the end of September 2026, 32 countries had endorsed the pledge, together accounting for almost 40 percent of global sustainable fuel demand.
The endorsing countries are moving faster than the rest of the world: demand in their markets rose 9 percent in the last year against 7 percent elsewhere, and is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 7 percent through 2030, compared with around 3 percent in countries outside the pledge. Liquid biofuels account for nearly 70 percent of projected growth through 2030, and production of low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels from operating or committed projects is projected to rise to nearly six times its 2024 level by 2030. The IEA said the 2035 goal remains achievable if governments fully implement announced policies and remove barriers to investment and deployment.