Guinea’s Simandou iron ore mine is targeting full annual export capacity of 120 million tonnes by the end of 2027, according to shipping industry forecasts reported by Mining.com, although analysts are divided over how quickly the operation can overcome rail and port bottlenecks. The project’s logistics network is operating at an annualised capacity of about 72 million tonnes, and further expansion depends on deliveries of locomotives and wagons and on commissioning the second phase of Morébaya port by March 2027.
Shipments are accelerating in the meantime. Guinea exported 8.9 million tonnes of iron ore in the third quarter, up 48 percent from 6 million tonnes in the preceding three months, according to government data, with the Baowu Winning Consortium accounting for 6.55 million tonnes and Simfer, the Rio Tinto and Chinalco joint venture, 2.16 million tonnes. Macquarie estimates full year exports could reach about 28 million tonnes if October shipment rates hold. Against that, S&P Global Energy CERA has suggested full capacity could take more than five years, with exports reaching about 70 million tonnes by 2028, and Fearnley Securities has projected full capacity during 2028.