Alaska crude oil production will rise 23,000 barrels per day, or 6 percent, in 2026 and a further 60,000 barrels per day, or 13 percent, in 2027, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, taking output to a forecast 505,000 barrels per day in 2027, the most since 2014. If realized, the increases would be the largest since the 1980s, when Alaskan production peaked at 2.0 million barrels per day.
The growth comes from two North Slope projects. ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project, producing since December 2024, has averaged 10,000 barrels per day this year against a 20,000 barrel peak. The Pikka Phase 1 project, owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026, reached 38,000 barrels per day by September, and is expected to peak at 80,000 barrels per day by winter 2026 to 2027. Third quarter 2026 production grew 4 percent as Pikka came online, the first third quarter increase in more than 40 years.