EU paid an estimated €8.7 billion for Yamal LNG this year

The European Union paid an estimated €8.7 billion for liquefied natural gas from Russia's Yamal project in the first ten months of 2026, more than the estimated total for all of 2025, weeks before the EU ban on Russian LNG imports under long-term contracts takes effect on January 1.

Why it matters: Europe took 81 percent of Yamal's deliveries this year, and losing that market in mid-winter forces Novatek to push cargoes east through Arctic ice, the shipping constraint that now decides how much Russian LNG reaches Asia.

Data as of gCaptain report of November 12, 2026, read in full, reporting an Urgewald analysis of Kpler shipping data; the payment figures are indicative estimates based on monthly benchmark gas prices and delivered volumes, not verified contract payments. Developing item.

EU ports received 12.89 million tonnes of Yamal LNG across 177 cargoes between January and October, up 6.3 percent from the same period last year, and the estimated €8.7 billion bill is about 21 percent higher than the €7.2 billion calculated for all of 2025, according to an Urgewald analysis of Kpler data reported by gCaptain. October deliveries alone totalled 705,591 tonnes across 10 cargoes, worth an estimated €839 million, with France taking seven of the shipments.

From January 1 the EU ban leaves Yamal’s 14 Arc7 ice-class carriers to redirect cargoes toward Asia just as winter ice makes eastbound Northern Sea Route navigation hardest: only 11 Arc7 cargoes have travelled east between November and May since 2018. Kpler’s rotation model suggests plant output, not tanker availability, is the binding constraint on extra European deliveries before the deadline, and Rosatom expects regular year-round eastbound shipping to begin in early 2027 with a new nuclear icebreaker.

EU paid an estimated €8.7 billion for Yamal LNG this year

Sources