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Sunday, November 15, 2026

Nebius falls as capex climbs and 2026 outlook softens

Technology Thursday, November 12, 2026 - Updated Nov 13, 2026 07:12

Nebius beat third quarter revenue expectations at $980.8 million, but shares fell after the company guided 2026 revenue to the low end of its range and lifted expected 2026 capital spending to $27 billion, even as it signed $12 billion of contracts in the quarter.

Why it matters: Nebius is one of the largest listed neocloud builders, and a $40 billion to $45 billion capex plan for 2027, well above analyst expectations, tests how much spending the AI data center buildout can absorb before returns, not capacity, set the shares.

Data as of CNBC report of November 12, 2026, read in full via the estate browser route, reporting Nebius's third quarter results and shareholder letter. Updated November 12, 2026 with Nebius's own third quarter release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 6-K the company filed with the SEC the same day (accession 0001104659-26-126008) and read in full: revenue of $980.8 million, the $37.5 million net loss from continuing operations, adjusted EBITDA of $465.8 million and adjusted net income of $90.9 million are the company's own figures. The guidance figures are as reported by CNBC from the shareholder letter (Exhibit 99.2 to the same filing) and corroborated by Reuters reporting of the letter. Updated again November 12, 2026 with Datacenter Dynamics reporting of the same day's earnings call, read in full: the $12 billion of third quarter contract values, the prepayment coverage and payback figures, and the Vineland delay account are management statements on that call as reported by Datacenter Dynamics. Developing item.

Nebius reported third quarter revenue of $980.8 million, ahead of the $907.5 million LSEG consensus and up 571 percent year on year, with a net loss from continuing operations of $37.5 million, or 13 cents a share, narrower than the $119.6 million loss a year earlier. The company’s own release, furnished to the SEC as an exhibit to its Form 6-K, also shows adjusted EBITDA of $465.8 million, against a $5.2 million adjusted loss a year earlier, and adjusted net income of $90.9 million. The shares fell about 10 percent on Thursday regardless.

The outlook is what moved the stock. Chief executive Arkady Volozh told shareholders the company expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range, against a $3.35 billion FactSet expectation, while expected 2026 capital spending rose to $27 billion from prior guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion. Nebius put initial 2027 revenue guidance at $12 billion to $13 billion and 2027 capex at $40 billion to $45 billion, far above the $28.77 billion FactSet expectation, and said it raised $5.75 billion of debt financing in the quarter.

On the earnings call, reported by Datacenter Dynamics, Volozh said contracts signed in the third quarter totalled $12 billion and that customer prepayments for those contracts covered 100 percent of the associated capital spending, up from 50 to 60 percent coverage in the second quarter, with full year prepayments expected to total $10 billion. Payback on the quarter’s contracts shortened to one year and seven months, from one year and ten months a quarter earlier, and the contracts were priced at $25 million per megawatt. Management also gave the reason for the softer 2026 revenue guide: some colocation sites, including the Vineland, New Jersey site being built for Microsoft, are behind schedule after DataOne wound down temporary generation faster than expected, shifting some planned 2026 revenue into early 2027, with no capacity cancelled. Datacenter Dynamics reported the shares down 18.48 percent at its time of writing, a deeper fall than the roughly 10 percent recorded earlier in the session.

Morning update, November 13: two details from the shareholder letter sharpen the print. About 325 million dollars of the quarter’s revenue was non-recurring, from the company’s asset-light model in which partners fund capacity, so the underlying run rate was lower than the headline beat suggests. Remaining performance obligations were 38.7 billion dollars at September 30, up only 3 percent from 37.5 billion dollars at June 30, because most of the 12 billion dollars of contracts signed since the start of the quarter were signed after quarter end and land in the fourth quarter book. Nebius filed a second Form 6-K later on November 12 (accession 0001104659-26-126238) furnishing its operating and financial review and unaudited statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026; the figures above are unchanged by it.

Sources

  1. Nebius falls 10% as company expects increased 2026 capex spend, issues weak outlook - CNBC - 2026-11-12
  2. Nebius reports third quarter 2026 financial results (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 6-K, accession 0001104659-26-126008) - Nebius Group N.V., via BusinessWire and SEC EDGAR - 2026-11-12
  3. Nebius signs $12bn in deals for Q3, all deals reportedly cover its capex - Datacenter Dynamics - 2026-11-12