Brazil 2027 grain harvest forecast down 2.6 percent

Brazil's first forecast for the 2027 grain harvest puts output at 346.6 million tonnes, down 2.6 percent from 2026, with corn down 5.6 percent and soy down 0.6 percent, the IBGE said on November 13.

Why it matters: Brazil is the swing supplier in world soy and a major corn exporter, and the IBGE ties the expected decline to a strong El Niño and to oil driven input costs, the same cost pressure squeezing farm margins across the Americas.

Data as of IBGE, first LSPA forecast for the 2027 harvest, published November 13, 2026 and read in full in Portuguese. Developing item.

Brazil’s grain harvest, cereals, legumes and oilseeds combined, is forecast at 346.6 million tonnes in 2027, 9.2 million tonnes or 2.6 percent below 2026, on a harvested area of 83.2 million hectares, down 0.1 percent, according to the IBGE’s first systematic production forecast. Soy output is put at 173.9 million tonnes, down 0.6 percent, corn at 137.4 million tonnes, down 5.6 percent, cotton down 5.4 percent and rice down 3.6 percent, with sorghum the main riser, up 1.1 percent.

The institute attributes the expected decline to a strong El Niño forecast for next year, which can intensify rainfall in the south and dry spells in the centre west, and to higher production costs as expensive oil feeds into fertiliser, fuel and crop chemical prices that Brazil largely imports. The same release put the October estimate for the 2026 harvest at a record 355.8 million tonnes, up 2.8 percent on 2025.

Brazil 2027 grain harvest forecast down 2.6 percent

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