Goldman Sachs sees downside risks to its 2027 copper price forecast of 15,400 dollars a metric tonne after the US midterm elections, citing AI related positioning and lower US tariff expectations, according to a bank note reported on November 13. The bank said the main risk to its forecast stems from positioning rather than physical demand.
Benchmark three month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.2 percent at 13,612 dollars a tonne in the report, but headed for a weekly loss amid an AI rout. If positioning stays at current levels, Goldman said copper could average around 14,600 dollars a tonne in 2027. On lower tariff expectations, the bank put its US stockbuilding assumption at risk and estimated an average near 14,500 dollars a tonne, with further downside if most of the US inventories built up this year flowed back to the rest of the world.
The forecast itself is not new. Goldman raised the 2027 average to 15,400 dollars a tonne on October 20, from 13,800 dollars, on weaker than expected mine supply and deficits outside the United States of about 950,000 tonnes in 2026 and 220,000 tonnes in 2027. The November note is the first public qualification of that call, and it locates the risk in market positioning and tariff driven stockbuilding rather than in mine supply or end demand.