Hong Kong raises 2026 growth forecast to 4.8 percent

Hong Kong's government has revised its 2026 real GDP growth forecast up to 4.8 percent, from the 3.5 to 4.5 percent range set in August, after third quarter growth was confirmed at 5.2 percent year on year and the first three quarters grew 5.1 percent, the fastest pace in five years.

Why it matters: The upgrade, driven by AI-related trade through Hong Kong, makes the city one of Asia's strongest 2026 performers, and it came with inflation forecasts cut rather than raised: underlying inflation is now seen at 1.9 percent and headline inflation at 2.0 percent for 2026, down from 2.5 and 2.6 percent in August.

Data as of Hong Kong government's Third Quarter Economic Report 2026 summary, published on hkeconomy.gov.hk on November 13, 2026 and read in full: the revised third quarter GDP figures, the revised 4.8 percent growth forecast for 2026 and the revised inflation forecasts are the government's own. The Census and Statistics Department's advance release of November 3, 2026 had scheduled the revised figures and forecast for November 13, 2026. Developing item.

Hong Kong’s government has raised its real GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8 percent, from the 3.5 to 4.5 percent range set in the August round of review, in its Third Quarter Economic Report published on Friday. Third quarter growth was confirmed at 5.2 percent year on year, up from 4.2 percent in the second quarter, and growth over the first three quarters reached 5.1 percent, the fastest pace for the period in five years, underpinned by buoyant AI-related external trade and solid domestic demand; merchandise exports surged 64.9 percent year on year in value terms in September.

The same report cut the 2026 inflation forecasts, to 1.9 percent underlying and 2.0 percent headline, from 2.5 and 2.6 percent in August, as pass-through from higher international oil prices proved slower than expected. The government said fourth quarter momentum looked sustained, while flagging Middle East tensions, a possible resurgence of trade tensions, rising sovereign bond yields and a potential correction if AI expectations prove too optimistic as the risks to watch.

Hong Kong raises 2026 growth forecast to 4.8 percent

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