US energy firms cut the total rig count for the first time in six weeks, Baker Hughes reported on Friday, but the oil rig count did not move. The combined oil and gas count fell by three to 601, the lowest since October 2, as gas rigs dropped four to 127 and miscellaneous rigs rose one to 11. Oil rigs held at 463, a one and a half year high, and the total count remains 52 rigs above the same week last year.
The Permian Basin added two rigs to 275, 22 above year ago levels, while the Eagle Ford held at 50. The rig count is an early indicator of future output, and on the EIA’s projections US crude production rises from a record 13.7 million barrels a day in 2025 to 13.9 million in 2026.
Current output is already above that path on the weekly figures. EIA data put crude production at 14.013 million barrels a day in the week ended November 6, a record for the third week running, up from 14.003 million the week before and 151,000 barrels a day above a year ago.
That combination, flat rigs and record weekly output, is why the US supply side keeps validating the surplus narrative even as prices hold in the mid 90s on Hormuz risk. The barrels are coming from productivity and completion pace, not from a drilling boom that a price fall could quickly switch off.